By Wendell Cox : newgeography – excerpt

For more than 75 years America has been dispersing away from dense urban cores, with nearly all population growth in neighborhoods with a suburban form, whether inside urban core cities (Note 1) or within. This trend could well be accelerating and is now extending into counties that the Census Bureau determined had no urbanization at all in 2020. The trend toward suburbanization has long been opposed by urban planning orthodoxy, and increasingly state governments in California, Oregon, Massachusetts, and the city of Minneapolis. Public officials and key political figures such as California’s last two Governors, Jerry Brown and Gavin Newsom have endorsed policies to increase urban density. The dispersion occurring represents a rejection of that agenda.

In just the first three years of the decade, nearly five million US residents have migrated across county borders, according to US Census Bureau population estimates from July 1, 2020 to July 1, 2023. Each year, the Census Bureau estimates net domestic migration (migrating in minus migrating out), which is measured at the lowest level between counties. Only total net domestic migration is estimated by the Census Bureau, not other characteristics, such as income or race. Further, there are no data for areas within counties, such as cities (except where cities and counties have the same geographic boundaries, such as in Baltimore, Washington, Philadelphia, St. Louis and, of course New York, which consists of five complete counties)…

Urban Areas: The Census Bureau defines urban areas after each census. Urban density is calculated by dividing the total urban population by the urban land area. In 2020, the average US overall population density was 94 per square mile (including both urban and rural areas). Among counties, the highest urban density is 74,800 in New York County (Manhattan). Of the nation’s about 3,100 counties and county equivalents, more than 1,000 had no urbanization in 2020. Urban density is a useful measure of urban influence at the county level.

It is notable that this net domestic migration has been overwhelmingly away from more intense urbanization — that is from counties with larger urban densities to counties with lower urban densities. Counties with higher urban population densities are often in or near the urban cores of the largest metropolitan areas.

Urban Density Weighted Net Domestic Migration…(more)